STRATEGY OR ILLUSION? - AT 8:17 A.M. ET:  We now have some details on what the Obama administration plans for Iran if the mullahs reject our offer to negotiate terms of their nuclear program.  The trouble is, there are asterisks, deadly asterisks.  From the Israeli press:

U.S. National Security Advisor James Jones, who is now in Israel to discuss Iran's nuclear program, indicated that Tehran has until the UN General Assembly in the last week of September to respond. U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates delivered a similar message during his visit here earlier this week. If no satisfactory answer is received, the Americans said, they would work to form an international coalition to impose harsh sanctions on Iran.

They key term is not "harsh sanctions" but "international coalition."  Try forming one sometime.

New sanctions would mainly aim to significantly curb Tehran's ability to import refined petroleum products. Despite its huge crude oil reserves, Iran has only limited refining capacity, so it imports large quantities of refined products such as gasoline.

Has anyone who sells gasoline to Iran even vaguely agreed to this?

In the next stage, the Americans will consider even harsher sanctions, such as banning Iranian ships from docking in Western ports and, as a next step, banning Iranian airplanes from landing in Western airports.

And the key term here is, "the Americans will consider..."  Anyone else considering?

Jones and his team presented the ideas that the administration is forging, together with France, Britain and Germany, on imposing additional sanctions on Iran via the UN Security Council if the dialogue fails. The Americans are also discussing this issue with Russia, which at this stage objects to further sanctions.

Russia has veto power on the Council.  That answers that.

China, which has numerous interests in Iran, also objects to further sanctions. Jones told the Israelis that Obama will therefore go to China soon to try to enlist Beijing to join the coalition.

China also has veto power.  But The One will convince them...just as he's convinced Iran and North Korea to change their policies.

Why is my enthusiasm limited?

July 31, 2009